Darron Charlesworth35 Million by 2050?
April 14th 2010 23:38
Category: No Category
News outlets across Australia are reporting on the latest survey conducted on the future growth of population. Many of the respondents appear worried by the PM’s recently announced goal of 35 million people by 2050. Academics have also been vocal in their opposition to this figure. But do they have legitimate ground to question this population target or are their claims unfounded? There are some strong rationales behind the objection to such a large growth in Australia’s population which look at ongoing concerns without touching on possibilities which may or may not eventuate.
The most obvious concern which could be raised and hold the most legitimacy is the provision of water. Every major mainland capital in Australia has been in drought and under water restrictions for most of the past 10 years. In some cases there has been serious concern that there would be insufficient water for critical human needs. How then could these cities expect to support large increases in their populations? Under current management practice the simple answer is that they could not. This is not to say that they could never support larger populations just that if present management and practices continue it would not be possible.
That Australia has been subjected to such chronic water shortages is not much of a surprise. The problem that faces the Australian people is the lack of positive direction in water provision and policy from the political spectrum. Take Adelaide as just one example. Currently the city has a desalination plant under construction. It is anticipated then once in production it will provide a large portion of the water for the City’s human needs. This will however be insufficient to meet all the City’s needs or to cater for any increase in the current population. What this solution does not do is effectively manage the available water and has the potential to create a whole new set of problems which the Government refuses to acknowledge are highly probable. If the water which flows annually into the ocean from stormwater runoff and effluence was captured, treated and re-used there would be little need for an expensive desalination plant and there would be a greater ability to support a growing population.
Secondary to the water issue is the provision of the infrastructure. This covers roads, rail, public transport, schools and housing. The major cities of Australia are already struggling to find sufficient land to provide these services for the population they currently have. Addressing the ongoing problems would involve a great deal of expense by government to purchase land so that services can be expanded. The ability to subdivide has increased the residential density of established suburbs but this creates stress on the existing infrastructure which was not designed to manage these density increases. When the planners designed the road networks, sewerage networks and schools they did it within the expectations of the time. In some suburbs there has been a 150 percent increase in residents. This strains the infrastructure. Schools are especially problematic. They require large amount of land which is unavailable in older suburbs which already have little to no free open space. The only option is to build over the playing fields and playgrounds reducing the area for children to get what little exercise they do get.
On the issues discussed State and Commonwealth leaders need to produce a much more effective management plan. The plan needs to demonstrate in practice its capacity to resolve these issues before the Australian public could become comfortable with the idea of large increases in population. Just wanting a larger population is not sufficient for actually supporting one. Consideration has to be taken of the consequences on the current structures prior to large scale increases. The Government will need to show the Australian public that they can cater for the current population before they will accept any contemplation of an increase of nearly 15 million people.
The most obvious concern which could be raised and hold the most legitimacy is the provision of water. Every major mainland capital in Australia has been in drought and under water restrictions for most of the past 10 years. In some cases there has been serious concern that there would be insufficient water for critical human needs. How then could these cities expect to support large increases in their populations? Under current management practice the simple answer is that they could not. This is not to say that they could never support larger populations just that if present management and practices continue it would not be possible.
On the issues discussed State and Commonwealth leaders need to produce a much more effective management plan. The plan needs to demonstrate in practice its capacity to resolve these issues before the Australian public could become comfortable with the idea of large increases in population. Just wanting a larger population is not sufficient for actually supporting one. Consideration has to be taken of the consequences on the current structures prior to large scale increases. The Government will need to show the Australian public that they can cater for the current population before they will accept any contemplation of an increase of nearly 15 million people.
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