Darron CharlesworthGillard must go to the electorate now
June 28th 2010 07:32
Category: No Category
Last week was a huge week politically. The swift but necessary demise of King Kevin took many in the media by surprise. It took a lot of restraint but I decided against contributing to the cluttered din of media commentary on the so called “Rudd Assassination”.
Now the dust has settled a little the next major issue on the agenda is an election. There is a Federal election due and the new PM, Julia Gillard, has declared that it will be this year – but when?
A quick look at the pre-coup poll shows that Gillard has given Labor an instant bounce in public opinion. This must shake Abbott as his chance for electoral upheaval has just taken a huge hit. Newspoll shows Labor have gained a 5.5 point lead on the Liberals - their best position for some months.
If I was in the Labor camp I would be moving right now. With Parliament beginning the winter break and the public not fully embracing Abbott as an alternative leader Gillard will be hard pushed to find a better time.
Although the destination of preferences cannot be certain the most likely outcome is that a similar scenario to the last Federal election is the probable outcome. While the Greens have stated that Labor should not expect automatic delivery of preferences the truth is that the Liberals are much further away than Labor on Green Ideologies. Abbott is probably the least likely advocate that Bob Brown and the Greens could invest their votes in therefore, despite Green protestations to the contrary, it is unlikely the Greens will offer broad support for the an Abbott led Liberal Party.
With a bounce in the poll in their favour and the new leader offering promise of directional changes now is the best time for Labor to move. Any delay could allow Abbott to halt the Gillard honeymoon and mount a challenge. The longer the delay now the more it is likely to harm Labor’s re-election chances.
Now the dust has settled a little the next major issue on the agenda is an election. There is a Federal election due and the new PM, Julia Gillard, has declared that it will be this year – but when?
A quick look at the pre-coup poll shows that Gillard has given Labor an instant bounce in public opinion. This must shake Abbott as his chance for electoral upheaval has just taken a huge hit. Newspoll shows Labor have gained a 5.5 point lead on the Liberals - their best position for some months.
Although the destination of preferences cannot be certain the most likely outcome is that a similar scenario to the last Federal election is the probable outcome. While the Greens have stated that Labor should not expect automatic delivery of preferences the truth is that the Liberals are much further away than Labor on Green Ideologies. Abbott is probably the least likely advocate that Bob Brown and the Greens could invest their votes in therefore, despite Green protestations to the contrary, it is unlikely the Greens will offer broad support for the an Abbott led Liberal Party.
With a bounce in the poll in their favour and the new leader offering promise of directional changes now is the best time for Labor to move. Any delay could allow Abbott to halt the Gillard honeymoon and mount a challenge. The longer the delay now the more it is likely to harm Labor’s re-election chances.
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Comment by Elisabeth Fraser
Paper Cover
Australian Take
The ministers need to come out from Rudd's control and prove themselves as viable and reliable ministers. They need to show that they can run their own portfolios and run them well.
So look for changes, adjustments and the disappearance of some very unpopular items - e.g. The Internet filter for a start.
My take on this is that we may be looking at a late October/early November election.
I'm also predicting that we may see a different Peter Garret later on this year. He's done quite well at the Whaling Conference.
Comment by Darron Charlesworth
Australian Politics
Environmental Issues
A different Garrett would be nice but as it stands he has no credibility.